Wednesday, November 12, 2008

5% GDP is enough to get rid of this mess

"I believe that India is better placed than any of the leading economies of the world to recover from the mess that the world economy has got into because of a very simple reason. We are primarily a domestic economy focused nation. Our fundamentals are good. Our productivity is improving. Our major power is our in house growth; India is a country which is now dependent on its domestic growth rather than the downfall of Dow Jones. I agree that still we fall like anything when Dow closes in negative but I am sure that days are ahead when we will move in opposite direction, just we have to wait for the next first half of newt year means at the end of H1 we may see a strong pullback in Indian economy.

Let’s have some look at the below data:
Year GDP Rank
2004 8.3% 16
2005 6.2% 43
2006 8.4% 24
2007 9.2% 23

It recorded a GDP growth rate of 9.1% for the fiscal year 2007–2008 which makes it the second fastest big emerging economy, after China, in the world at this rate of sustained growth many economists forecasted that India would, over the coming decades, have a more pronounced economic effect on the world stage. Despite this phenomenal rate of growth, India's large population has an estimated per capita income of $4,659, measured by PPP, and $2,978, measured in nominal terms, as of 2007.

Now every finance pundit is forecasting India’s GDP growth for this fiscal year. Someone is saying that it will sustain 7%, somebody saying other things. Day after Day they are changing their maths to calculate, this actually creates panic over short term. Lets forget all things and assume that we will grow by 5% over this year (Here I am also downgrading India’s growth), But open your eyes and see what is happening in other countries, USA, EUROPE are fighting with sustain in even in positive growth. When everyone growth is dipping in negative rates then if India could maintain even 5% growth then imagine where India will be among its peers. India is going to prove the king in world in regards to economy growth this year. And if that happens I feel in heaven assuming the amount of in flows from across the world. Recently we have witnessed all new 24 FIIs from Mauritius; I think they have predicted that India is going to be the Ace in coming years.

All the large economies of the world, US, Europe, Japan seem to be in greater economic distress than the emerging markets. India and China are mentioned most often as possibly helping the world out.

My concern is only that we should not panic like everyone; if you have a long term goal then this is the right time to hunt for value picks. In my opinion if anyone is having 2 lakhs he can make fortunes now, but he may have to wait for two years.
I am dreaming of a big bull rally after we come out of this mess. Most of the stocks are available at attractive valuations.

3 comments:

  1. Hi
    Deepak this is Chirag.
    I want to give u a blog role on my blog.
    This will be done by Sunday.

    ReplyDelete
  2. thanks chirag...

    it does not matter for me to write anywhere... the thing that matters is the information conveyed to the novice investors ..... i will write for you... just sent me an email at deepakrules@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
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