Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Common Mistakes by Investors in Stock Market

Below list is in no order, I am listing down the common mistakes done by most of investor who invest in equities directly. Will keep on adding more to it.

Buying stocks based on borrowed conviction: Never buy stock based on the conviction borrowed from other person. Though it looks contrary as I am writing about stocks and visitors takes clue from it but always check and test stock on your points and decide only after giving thoughts many times on it.

No focus on Capital Protection: people always want to double money in 1 year or even in 6 months, this is possible but comes with a very high risk. Rather than focusing only on gaining money, first thing you should look in a stock is whether it will be able to protect my capital.

Not gauging oneself risk appetite: A young investor can put money in equities but for a senior citizen it is not advisable to put money in equities. A proper risk assessment of yourself is necessary before buying into stocks. Hedge by investing in gold.

Failing to Diversify: Don’t put all money in a single stock. Ideal number of stocks in a portfolio is a debatable thing, but one should keep only those many stocks in portfolio which he can track easily. Any number between 10 to 15 stocks is good enough for a portfolio. Keeping 5 or less than 5 stocks is called a super concentrated portfolio which is not advised for retail investors. It is the greed which influences people to put all money in a single stock.

Lack of patience: Making money in the stock market is hard not because finding great companies is difficult but because the best and easiest-to-understand strategy for winning is so difficult to adhere to. That strategy can be described in three words: buy and hold. Here buy and hold doesn’t mean that you buy and never sell that stock, it means that you need to verify the fundamentals and stock behaviour once in a while. Frequency for verifying varies from small to large caps. In case of small caps you need to check the performance frequently as it takes no time in changing fortunes of a small cap company on either side.

Doing Averaging: People keeps on buying a falling stock which is not a good practice. You have an investment that drops 50%. How much must it then gain? The answer may surprise you: it’s 100%, just to break even. It is better to put money in some other falling stocks in down market.

Freaking out in market drops: Selling in panic in falling market. If market falls, every stock falls nothing is exception. Strong companies on strong foothold with margins improving will come back easily to previous levels. We have seen it in Feb2016 crash, now all stocks are back or even breaking 52weeks highs.

Note:
Favorable Sector & Government Push: Always buy stocks which have favorable sector wind behind them. If sector is moving then stocks will also move. Example: Currently theme is Make in India, Defense, GST, Cement, Consumers and Power etc., so if you buy stocks in these sector they will have tailwind associated with them. These stocks can give good returns even in falling market sometimes. Jain Irrigation can be considered for this analysis.

Play on Margin Expansion: Companies which are on the verge of margin expansion breakout always give superlative returns as compared to companies which are consistently having margins of 20%+. Example: A Company having a margin of 7% Is expected to raise it to 12% in next 2 years will give more returns compared to a company which is currently having 25% margins and expected to have same 25% going forward.

Debt is not Bad: People try to stay away from the companies which are having debt on their books. Instead of taking immediate call after looking at debt, one should look management perspective about the debt reduction, how they are planning to reduce debt over a period of 2 to 3 years from now. If they are raising debt for expansion plan capex then what is probable period of payback from that expansion?

Free Cash Flow is King: Always check for free cash flow a company is generating, for a company who is on the verge of margin expansion the FCF may not look good but still it can be checked from last 2 quarter results trend. 


Monday, June 27, 2016

Updates

http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/gold-gets-a-leg-up-from-global-leads-jewellers-buying-116062700515_1.html

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Updates and food for thoughts

I have no clue why market is falling these days as there is no concrete trigger. China issue cannot bring down markets like this. Nor a falling oil. There are only assumptions by experts with no perfect data. In Summary I don’t know why market is falling down.
In Short term markets may not do any fireworks but yes Market will reward stock pickers. We need to go for Specific Stock Hunting.

At this time, I will not touch any PSU Bank except SBI.

On Infra, L&T and MBL Infra looks good to me. L&T has fallen much, though there is more possibility of it going down further 50-80Rs but it looks good and safe at these levels.
Since last 2-3 quarters, FII and DII has increased their holdings in MBL Infra.

Saksoft has made a high of 470 but now again in lower circuits. I am still positive on this stock.

Another Story is BODHTREE as they have a got a big investor (PRAMEYA CAPITAL). Company is taking initiatives to increase the Profit Margins and foray into Big Data in big ways. May take some time in execution.

Due to recent developments on investments by current govt, I am highly positive on Defense Sector. I look forward for good earning by Astra Micro. Management is excellent and it is largest supplier to Indian defense for microchips and RF equipment. One of my favourite.

Narayana Hrudalaya is into niche area. Looks good. Management is also excellent. Have good expansion plans which will get executed in near future like a Hospital in Vaishno Devi.

Navkar Corp can see new highs after passing GST Bill. Something is very very unique about this company which will drive the huge growth in near future.

IOL Chemicals & Pharma is biggest manufacturer of Ibuprofen and recently has completed the restructuring.

Due to upcoming Amusement Park in Hyderabad this year, WonderLa Holidays is all set for good performance. High Profit, ROE business & High Entry barrier will drive the growth. It is one of my favorite.

Infosys is very clear about its earning upto 2020 that’s why it is catching fancy of investors. Can grow yoy by 20% or more.

In IT, TATA Elxsi also looks good which can reward in big ways.

I have not sold any stock and holding all my existing positions despite of recent fall in 
market.


Above, I have given many stock names. Please give time to do research on them by your own and make decision accordingly.

This write shall not be considered as buy recommendation on any stock. It is just a knowledge sharing write-up.

Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Delta Corp.. A Story to watch-out for

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS ANALYSIS AND NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION IN ANY ASPECT.

Indians Love Gambling & gaming. There is a strong appetite for gaming in India. Horse Racing business has a turnover of $356, Lottery Tickets more than $10bn....

Casino is still in nascent stage in India with a annual turnover of $120mn.

DELTA is India’s first listed pure-play gaming company. It owns three of the six licenses
for offshore casinos in Goa and enjoys a lion’s share of India’s offshore casino market.

Key Triggers going ahead:

  • DELTA is opening a Casino in Daman shortly. They has already got the license for it.
  • It is highly unlikely that Goa Government will give licenses to any other player for on ground casinos as ground casino are permitted to run only in 5 star hotel. 
Why this stock need focus:
  • Very Strong Entry Barrier in Casino/Gaming Industry
  • Delta is only listed player
  • DELTA owns three of the six licenses for offshore gaming in Goa
  • Management is experienced.
  • Huge Cash generating business
  • Only Goa. Sikkim and Daman allow gaming business and Delta has strong foothold in Goa.
  • Tourists spend $350mn in Goa Annually
  • There is a 15% tax on gaming revenues which is favourable
  • Goa is close to cash rich cities Mumbai & Ahmedabad
  • Its two operational casinos on the River Mandovi, Deltin Royale and Deltin JAQK, have a combined capacity of ~2,000 gaming positions
  • The commissioning of Deltin Caravela, currently under renovation, will add 200 gaming positions

Something about new Casino in Daman
It will be India’s first land-based casino (subject to approval) outside Goa. The Daman property will have ~1,200 gaming positions
After opening of Daman Casino, total gaming positions will be approx 3400

Risks:
In case of issuanace of new licenses to other player, it will reduce market share of Delta.
Any new regulation may directly impact Delta corp adversely.


Going Forward
I believe all capex part is now behind us, and now Delta is poised to grow exponentially in 2 to  years to come. PWC estimates the total global gaming casino market in 2015 at USD183b. Asia Pacific region has led growth, with a CAGR of 21.5%. Over the last 10 years, the Indian casino market has been growing at ~36% per year. DELTA’s own gaming business has grown at a CAGR of 37% over FY11-14.
It has a huge debt of $3bn but i think strong cash generation will help in paying off this complete debt in next 2 to 3 years.

I expect at least 30% yoy growth for Delta in coming years. Profit after tax shall grow at rate of 35% or more in years to come.

It has tested the patience of Investors in last 2 years. But i think the story will move forward now.

Its a story to watch out for NOW.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS ANALYSIS AND NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION IN ANY ASPECT.

















Thursday, December 31, 2015

Saksoft… riding on big data wave

BSE Code: 590051

CMP: 304

It is into information management (IM) and business intelligence (BI) services. Saksoft has successfully transformed its business by acquired Acuma Solutions in 2006 and now recently took over Three sixty logica testing in 2014 which are into testing and QA across various verticals of industry, customers and geographies. It is now fully into data warehousing, business intelligence and data analytics….

It is focusing on mobile applications as well which is a big positive as there are only a few established and branded players in India in this segment. 

Big Data Growth Projections:



Saksoft caters to banking, financial, travel & tourism, manufacturing, retail, telecom. Logistics.. It was founded by Mr Aditya Krishna an ex citi bank executive who was one of member of team which introduced citi bank credit cards business in India successfully.

Revenue Split up: 47% from UK, 38% from US, 14% from Rest of World.

Technology partners: SAP, Tibco, Logi Analytics etc(all big names in data management)

EPS has increased at the rate of 34% CAGR over 2011 to 2015
Debt to Equity ratio decreased from .96 to .27 (company is reducing debt yoy)
Regular dividend paying company..10%, 10%, 20%, 25%, 25% in fy10,fy11,fy12,fy13 and fy14 respectively.

Turnover got more than doubled from 1050mn to 2315mn in 5 years…
EBIDTA margin & NP grew at rate of 26% & 35% respectively since last 5 years
ROE in double digit. Increasing yoy from 10% in fy10 to 15% in fy15

Despite of investing 1000mn in aquisititions in recent past, Saksoft managed to reduce the debt substantially…
It has earned the loyality of customers as 50% of its customers are working with them from last past 5 years continuously….
Total headcount of 680 employees across UK,US, India and Singapore

Risks which can come at anytime in an IT Company
Compliance: Saksoft major chunk of revenue comes from US and UK and it has not sensored by any customer in these countries. It gives confidence that company is taking all measures to mitigate the compliance related risks

Big Data is driving the profitability of most of micro and midcap IT Companies since last 2 years and this business segment is poised to give exponential profits to organizations who are fully into it. In last 2 years there were couple of companies who are into big data, the stock prices of them gave 2000% returns. Saksoft is still undiscovered. Promoter shareholder is very good and most of open stocks are in strong hands. Liquidity is very less. There is no FII and DII holdings which is a big positive.

Recently stock prices has witnessed a sharp jump upwards(including many upper circuits), but i think there is a lot of more to come.

Next 2 years would be game changing for this organization which is sailing on big-data and mobile applications business model. 


It is just an analysis and not a recommendation to buy this stock. Please do full due diligence before buy it.