Updates and food for thoughts

I have no clue why market is falling these days as there is no concrete trigger. China issue cannot bring down markets like this. Nor a falling oil. There are only assumptions by experts with no perfect data. In Summary I don’t know why market is falling down.

In Short term markets may not do any fireworks but yes Market will reward stock pickers. We need to go for Specific Stock Hunting.

At this time, I will not touch any PSU Bank except SBI.

On Infra, L&T and MBL Infra looks good to me. L&T has fallen much, though there is more possibility of it going down further 50-80Rs but it looks good and safe at these levels.

Since last 2-3 quarters, FII and DII has increased their holdings in MBL Infra.

Saksoft has made a high of 470 but now again in lower circuits. I am still positive on this stock.

Another Story is BODHTREE as they have a got a big investor (PRAMEYA CAPITAL). Company is taking initiatives to increase the Profit Margins and foray into Big Data in big ways. May take some time in execution.

Due to recent developments on investments by current govt, I am highly positive on Defense Sector. I look forward for good earning by Astra Micro. Management is excellent and it is largest supplier to Indian defense for microchips and RF equipment. One of my favourite.

Narayana Hrudalaya is into niche area. Looks good. Management is also excellent. Have good expansion plans which will get executed in near future like a Hospital in Vaishno Devi.

Navkar Corp can see new highs after passing GST Bill. Something is very very unique about this company which will drive the huge growth in near future.

IOL Chemicals & Pharma is biggest manufacturer of Ibuprofen and recently has completed the restructuring.

Due to upcoming Amusement Park in Hyderabad this year, WonderLa Holidays is all set for good performance. High Profit, ROE business & High Entry barrier will drive the growth. It is one of my favorite.

Infosys is very clear about its earning upto 2020 that’s why it is catching fancy of investors. Can grow yoy by 20% or more.

In IT, TATA Elxsi also looks good which can reward in big ways.

I have not sold any stock and holding all my existing positions despite of recent fall in 

market.

Above, I have given many stock names. Please give time to do research on them by your own and make decision accordingly.

This write shall not be considered as buy recommendation on any stock. It is just a knowledge sharing write-up.

Delta Corp.. A Story to watch-out for

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS ANALYSIS AND NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION IN ANY ASPECT.

Indians Love Gambling & gaming. There is a strong appetite for gaming in India. Horse Racing business has a turnover of $356, Lottery Tickets more than $10bn....

Casino is still in nascent stage in India with a annual turnover of $120mn.

DELTA is India’s first listed pure-play gaming company. It owns three of the six licenses
for offshore casinos in Goa and enjoys a lion’s share of India’s offshore casino market.

Key Triggers going ahead:

• DELTA is opening a Casino in Daman shortly. They has already got the license for it.
• It is highly unlikely that Goa Government will give licenses to any other player for on ground casinos as ground casino are permitted to run only in 5 star hotel. 

Why this stock need focus:

• Very Strong Entry Barrier in Casino/Gaming Industry
• Delta is only listed player
• DELTA owns three of the six licenses for offshore gaming in Goa
• Management is experienced.
• Huge Cash generating business
• Only Goa. Sikkim and Daman allow gaming business and Delta has strong foothold in Goa.
• Tourists spend $350mn in Goa Annually
• There is a 15% tax on gaming revenues which is favourable
• Goa is close to cash rich cities Mumbai & Ahmedabad
• Its two operational casinos on the River Mandovi, Deltin Royale and Deltin JAQK, have a combined capacity of ~2,000 gaming positions
• The commissioning of Deltin Caravela, currently under renovation, will add 200 gaming positions

Something about new Casino in Daman

It will be India’s first land-based casino (subject to approval) outside Goa. The Daman property will have ~1,200 gaming positions

After opening of Daman Casino, total gaming positions will be approx 3400

Risks:

In case of issuanace of new licenses to other player, it will reduce market share of Delta.

Any new regulation may directly impact Delta corp adversely.

Going Forward

I believe all capex part is now behind us, and now Delta is poised to grow exponentially in 2 to  years to come. PWC estimates the total global gaming casino market in 2015 at USD183b. Asia Pacific region has led growth, with a CAGR of 21.5%. Over the last 10 years, the Indian casino market has been growing at ~36% per year. DELTA’s own gaming business has grown at a CAGR of 37% over FY11-14.

It has a huge debt of $3bn but i think strong cash generation will help in paying off this complete debt in next 2 to 3 years.

I expect at least 30% yoy growth for Delta in coming years. Profit after tax shall grow at rate of 35% or more in years to come.

It has tested the patience of Investors in last 2 years. But i think the story will move forward now.

Its a story to watch out for NOW.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS ANALYSIS AND NOT A BUY RECOMMENDATION IN ANY ASPECT.

Saksoft… riding on big data wave

BSE Code: 590051

CMP: 304

It is into information management (IM) and business intelligence (BI) services. Saksoft has successfully transformed its business by acquired Acuma Solutions in 2006 and now recently took over Three sixty logica testing in 2014 which are into testing and QA across various verticals of industry, customers and geographies. It is now fully into data warehousing, business intelligence and data analytics….

It is focusing on mobile applications as well which is a big positive as there are only a few established and branded players in India in this segment. 

Big Data Growth Projections:

Saksoft caters to banking, financial, travel & tourism, manufacturing, retail, telecom. Logistics.. It was founded by Mr Aditya Krishna an ex citi bank executive who was one of member of team which introduced citi bank credit cards business in India successfully.

Revenue Split up: 47% from UK, 38% from US, 14% from Rest of World.

Technology partners: SAP, Tibco, Logi Analytics etc(all big names in data management)

EPS has increased at the rate of 34% CAGR over 2011 to 2015

Debt to Equity ratio decreased from .96 to .27 (company is reducing debt yoy)

Regular dividend paying company..10%, 10%, 20%, 25%, 25% in fy10,fy11,fy12,fy13 and fy14 respectively.

Turnover got more than doubled from 1050mn to 2315mn in 5 years…

EBIDTA margin & NP grew at rate of 26% & 35% respectively since last 5 years

ROE in double digit. Increasing yoy from 10% in fy10 to 15% in fy15

Despite of investing 1000mn in aquisititions in recent past, Saksoft managed to reduce the debt substantially…

It has earned the loyality of customers as 50% of its customers are working with them from last past 5 years continuously….

Total headcount of 680 employees across UK,US, India and Singapore

Risks which can come at anytime in an IT Company

Compliance: Saksoft major chunk of revenue comes from US and UK and it has not sensored by any customer in these countries. It gives confidence that company is taking all measures to mitigate the compliance related risks

Big Data is driving the profitability of most of micro and midcap IT Companies since last 2 years and this business segment is poised to give exponential profits to organizations who are fully into it. In last 2 years there were couple of companies who are into big data, the stock prices of them gave 2000% returns. Saksoft is still undiscovered. Promoter shareholder is very good and most of open stocks are in strong hands. Liquidity is very less. There is no FII and DII holdings which is a big positive.

Recently stock prices has witnessed a sharp jump upwards(including many upper circuits), but i think there is a lot of more to come.

Next 2 years would be game changing for this organization which is sailing on big-data and mobile applications business model. 

It is just an analysis and not a recommendation to buy this stock. Please do full due diligence before buy it.

I am back after 3 years

After 3 years i am returning back. Almost all stocks and mutual funds which i had recommended have made fortunes for investors.
I would like to say big thanks to my followers who kept on sending me messages/emails during these days.
I will start publishing posts from tomorrow.

Thanks

Some Mutual Funds to Consider

I am writing first time about mutual fund….. the main reason which compelled me to write down about mutual funds is “worry of small investors who put their hard earned money into market and keep thinking that what happen in case of bloodbath in sensex”………….

Everybody has different risk appetite… all different source of income… somebody has fixed income somebody has variable…. We have seen stock pricing going 1/4^th in last crash of market…. Most stocks have not reached their earlier highs…..

I am listing down some good mutual funds which can be bought in lump sum OR in a SIP manner (choice is yours)….. Automated SIP is not recommended always.. you should be active enough to buy stock on the day of your choice…

My Favourite Funds List:

Large Cap Funds

Franklin India Bluechip

DSPBR Top 100

ICICI Prudential Focussed Bluechips

Large & MidCap

HDFC Top 200

Fidelity Equity

Mid & Small Cap

IDFC Premier Equity

Balanced

HDFC Prudence

MIP Plans

Birla Sunlife MIP II Savings Plan 5 (Invest 95% in debt and 5% in equities)

Reliance MIP

HDFC MIP Long Term

Do not invest your entire amount in any one fund OR in any single fund house…. Diversify it across different fund houses and different category of funds…

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One Suggestion:

If you have not taken term plan then do not go for any private firm for that. Go for LIC as policy claim ratio is highest(99%) in LIC..... it is just 10% in Aegon Religare which is selling cheapest term insurance plan.......

Also, Do not mix Life Insurance with Investment.... one should note and think about the claim process in case some mishap with you..... A Life Insurance Product is for protecting your family in case of any unfortunate event..... My personal Experience says LIC is the best player of Indian market for Life Insurance.. It is the company you can rely upon.....