Updates.....


In recent time there were big swings in markets..... Everyone's portfolio was down for continuous one week.... Specially mid-caps and small-caps were butchered... almost all were down 35-40-50%..... there were heavy fall among all indices... bank index was going down continuously....

Also after the land scam, infra stocks were hammered a lot...

A Lot of other stocks were beaten down to almost their 52 week low... like welspun corp went down to 160 levels from 295..... It is screaming buy... Fundamental story still intact and i will not be surprised if it will crore 240 levels again by March 2011....

I dont know what happened... suddenly on all channels those so called market analysts started giving bearish views for sensex... every one was coming out with low level target for sensex... i heard somebody was saying that nifty will go down to 5400 levels if some so called resistance broke.... I never understand what they want to prove by making stories like this???? Can anybody has answer....

A analyst advised a caller to exit from UFlex(my old pick) .. i was surprised..... UFlex CMD was involved in getting a small piece of land in lower prices from UP government... According to some newspapers he has got very good contacts in UP politicians... Does buying a piece of land at forged Prices changes the company fundamental....??? Does it will effect the business cash flows of a company..??? Have UFlex lost its Client due to this news??? Answer to all questions is NO...... I have seen whenever there is a dip of 200-300 points in sensex these analysts starts to come out from their holes and starts making new stories about bearishness.........

Today(On monday) once again... All analysts started making new higher targets for sensex... this is simply ridiculous... just few days back they all were setting up lower targets for sensex but just after 2 days they have started making guess about higher moves.... I guess these peoples were supporting SHORT SELLERS by making statements about bearish nature of market in short term..... this is my guess ,, and i dont know whether this is true or not.......

I reiterate that uflex is still a buy....all other all buy.. ennore coke, VIP Ind, Jyoti, Jyoti Structures(now brokerage houses have started to come out with a buy call on jyoti structure), Eros International, UTV, GSPL is already shining even in down market.. it is a hot cake stock now a days... almost everyone is saying to buy it... Petronet LNG is standing firm....

Trend Electronics has surprised everybody... came out with topline of 1500 crores... its market cap is just 63 crore... isnt it amazing.... sooner or later it will run...it is a screaming buy.... Suryaamba spinning mills has come down from level of 111Rs and it is a buy still.. Have a look at Super Spinning .. it has also came down 45% from its highs....

Also dont forgot Sumeet Industries... It has not moved but will start giving fruits very soon.... Hold on it... Buy Ennore Coke... It has come back to 90 levels... Once again giving excellent opportunities to invest....

SKS microfinance will make a come back.. i am still bullish on this scrip in LT......

One more stock i would like to bring into notice of readers is Shriram EPC... It is a great company ran by excellent management... fundamentally strong business model.. available at its near 52week low....at Rs 192 levels... came down from 312... It is a LT story...

Double “J”… Jyoti and Jyoti Structures

Jyoti…CMP: 103

Jyoti Structure… CMP:133

Friends,

I am tracking Jyoti Ltd since very long but unfortunately could not wrote anything on this excellent stock…though it has moved from its low of 44 and has already hit a high of 129.. right now it is at 103Rs and still it is a excellent company to buy for long term… I believe that this company is going to reward its investors very well in time to come. May be next 2-3 year time frame… things are turning positive for this company.. and according to me it is available at dirt cheap valuations looking at its business….

Jyoti is into Water, Power and Progress Projects…

I have written a lot on Water already.. Business in Water Sector is going to be a big thing in near future… companies has already sensed enormous potential in this sector and has started taking initiatives.. One big example is new business rivalry between HULs Pureit and TATA Swatch…

Jyoti has Market Cap of 165 crores… and current order book stands at 1100 Crores approximately… 6.5 times…. Also it has a very low equity of just 12.5 crores… profit coming from execution of those 1100 Crores projects will reflect in this 12.5 equity … you can think of yourself about this…. The company caters to Water, Power and Irrigation sectors where immense opportunities exist….It was established in 1943…..

Jyoti Ltd. today is serving the vital sectors of national and international economy such as

Power (Thermal, Hydel and Nuclear) generation, Transmission and Distribution.

Agriculture, providing irrigation through pumping systems.

Water supply and sewerage schemes.

Defense-particularly Naval and marine establishments.

Core industries like steel, cement, paper, sugar, fertilizers, chemicals and Petro-chemicals.

Railways.

Virtual Engineering :

Jyoti’s Design Center is the first of its kind in the western region of the country. The center aims at Virtual Engineering by providing CAD/CAM/CAE solutions i.e. to improve designs & manufacturing process and to enhance the product quality on one hand to reduce cost and time on the other.

Marketing Network :

The wide range of products and services offered are engineered by different product and service groups manned by competent professionals specializing in their respective fields. Jyoti has a country wide marketing network of Zonal and Branch offices and authorised service centers through which we cater to the complete technical & commercial needs of our wide base of customers

Its clientele includes:

RIL, Essar, TATA Chemicals, Indian power Corp, Indian Oil, GAIL, ONGC, SAIL, Indian petrochemical Corp, Grasim, L&T, NTPC… all big shot guns of Indian business industry… Jyoti has won many national awards… I would not list them all here… readers can go to company websites for more information on awards list….

Jyoti has a very huge real estate land bank in Gujarat … potential of which will unlock in near future… it is estimated to have 15 acres of land bank nearby Vadodara….. There is one negative thing for Jyoti and that is huge debt… but I believe it will overcome from that very soon… in FY09 Jyoti has paid total 14 crores as interest…

It has executed a project of 250 Crores received from HCC and Nagarjuna Construction(JV) for godawari Lift Irrigation Scheme in AP….and that too within timeline assigned…. This proves that Jyoti has capabilities to process and complete the project within time… this is a big thing that brings up the company on board to be looked upon by other potential big investors…… Now it is looking for more similar projects in irrigation space…

Last Year Jyoti has got orders of worth Rs541 Crores… wow… from Karnataka Neeravari Nigam Ltd to supply water pumps for drinking and irrigation water…. Also Jyoti was held completely responsible to execute all electro mechanical work including transmission links of power of 220KV…. Jyoti is currently executing this project within timeline… this is expected to be closed in around 3 years timeframe…

What is believe is, Sooner or later a big investor will take up stake in Jyoti Ltd…. That will be turning point… Since RJ has taken stake in VIP Industry it has rocking… I recommended VIP at 310.. now it is over 500… same can happen in Jyoti… This is a stock which you can buy and forgot for years to churn out real profit….

Buying or selling is ones own decision… I am nobody to force you to buy this stock… this is all my assumptions and thinking… I have wrote what I believe…..

Jyoti Structure is also a great and excellent company… I will post about this very soon on my blog….

Take Care

Announcements...UFLEX & UTV

I have read some announcements regarding UTV and UFlex on bseindia websites... I am pasting the exact wordings for those who has skipped reading this....

UTV Software Communications net profit rises 1626.55% in the September 2010 quarter..

Sales rise 74.81% to Rs 138.50 crore

Net profit of UTV Software Communications rose 1626.55% to Rs 47.48 crore in the quarter ended September 2010 as against Rs 2.75 crore during the previous quarter ended September 2009. Sales rose 74.81% to Rs 138.50 crore in the quarter ended September 2010 as against Rs 79.23 crore during the previous quarter ended September 2009. ......

my Comments
it has already hit high of 579..... i believe it will touch three digit soon within 12 months... i many also be wrong here.... After that i believe stock split OR bonus(may be) in this counter.... Lets see how things will unfold in this story....... It is a great stock to be held to churn out good return... do not sell it....


Annoucements on uflex.....

Uflex Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on October 13, 2010, has considered and approved the following :

1. The Rights Issue proposed by the Company has been withdrawn.

2. Preferential Issue upto 135 lacs warrants to Promoter/Promoter group at a price of Rs. 300/- per warrant or SEBI floor price whichever is higher.

3. Recommendation for passing of resolution u/s 81 (1A) of the Companies Act, 1956 in connection with issue of warrants to Promoter/Promoter group through Postal Ballot.


My comments....
uflex has already hit a new high of 309.... continously it is hitting newer highs daily...... as i told previously... soon it will be 400 then 500, 600 and counting will go like this... i believe still this stock is a buy... lot of steam has still left......
Promoters have been alloted warrants at a price of Rs300... Just look at the price.. yes its 300.... I am continously eriting on this stock when it was at 108 levels... already tripled.... and now promoters are alloting warrants at 300..... If they are alloting at 300 then you can assume at what level they will be cobverting them......... this is one of my excellent pick.....

Some Updates....

AK Capital is hitting upper circuits.... Touched level of 752.... exactly 2.5 times returns ...i have mentioned it at 303..... and that in just 2 months time frame......

UFlex ran from 108 to 263....... surely is is going to cross 300 mark this time....then 400, 500 and so on.... one should go long in this counter...

VIP industry has proved already...... Journey from 318 to 660 has covered in three months..... more then double.... What else one want... ??? as i mentioned it has still a long way to go....

Finolex Industries rose from 82 to 126 and Sarla Performance fibres from 92 to 155 very silently....

Rest... emmson, fedder lyod, RDB industry, everest kanto, patel airtemp, jetking, chennai petro are not moving right now... lets see how things work out ....

TATA Chemicals... On Its way to Glory....

Dear Friends,

TATA Chemical is my Old favourite.. I have mentioned it a couple of times on my blog though I haven’t written to much about this company in my previous articles….. The business model of TATA Chemicals looks very attractive and promising to me … I have mentioned in my post in June2010 about this scrip…. From that time it has rose from 300 levels to 422 levels already…. What I believe is it is just beginning. … a huge market in water and agri chemicals has to tapped still……

There are some recent articles in Economic times about developments in TATA Chemicals… I have consolidated all articles in my one post…. This is for my readers who didn’t noticed few interesting facts about this company…..

ET has come with a detailed report on TATA Chemical Prospective... According to them this company is a buy and hold....



Tata Chemicals: New gas pricing augurs well

A good monsoon has led to a spurt in fertiliser stocks. Given the anticipated increase in the allocation of natural gas from the government, they are expected to perform well in the coming quarters.

BUSINESS: Tata group firm, Tata Chemicals (TCL) was incorporated in 1939. It is ranked as one of the leading players in the agribusiness sector with a strong presence in crop nutrients and crop protection products. The company operates in industrial chemicals, crop nutrition and consumer products and serves a wide customer base spread across five continents. TCL has manufacturing facilities across four continents including North America, Europe, Africa and Asia.

TCL is the world’s second-largest producer of soda ash with a total capacity of 5 million metric tonne per annum of which more than 60% is attributed to natural soda ash. It is a market leader in the Indian branded iodised salt segment under the brand Tata Salt. In the private sector, TCL is one of the country’s leading producers of nitrogeneous and phosphatic fertilisers and offers a wide range of crop nutrition products under Tata Paras brand.

Under the Tata Swach brand, TCL offers the world’s lowest cost house-hold water purifier. Tata Chemicals has adopted a strategy of global acquisitions to expand its product and customer base. In 2008, it bought US-based General Chemical Industries Products (GCIP) which increased the company’s global soda ash capacity to 5.5 mt per annum.

This was followed by the buyout of UK-based Brunner Mond Group in early 2006. Recently, TCL increased its stake in another group firm Rallis India by nearly four percentage points to 50.6% by buying shares of worth Rs 89.03 crore on preferential basis. The deal is expected to benefit TCL in future.

GROWTH DRIVERS: Going ahead, the company is expected to benefit from the improving soda ash demand across the globe. The pricing mechanism looks to be stable in most of the markets but Europe which continues to put pressure on the company’s performance.

The company’s water purifier business under the name ‘Tata Swach’ recorded strong sales during the quarter. The company aims to sell a million units in the current financial year. Further, the company plans to roll out the business nationwide and eventually enter into the next line of product offerings through various technology enhancements. The company has lined up a capex of around Rs 500 crore for the next 2-3 years.

It intends to commission a customised fertiliser plant at Babrala, at a capacity of 1.32 lakh tonne per annum, by this month end. It plans to further increase the number of such units to 10 in the next three years. Given the new pricing and gas utilisation policy, the company is expected to increase the urea capacity of the Babrala plant two-fold at a capex of Rs 4,000 crore. This would depend on the allocation of natural gas from the government.

FINANCIALS: The company posted strong results for the quarter ended June 2010. This was mainly on account of one-time changes. During the quarter, the company’s topline grew 5.6% to Rs 2,477 crore against the corresponding period last year. This was on the back of a demand improvement witnessed in the domestic as well as the inter-national soda ash market.

The inorganic chemicals segment which attributes to 51% of the company’s net sales posted a nearly 6% fall in its revenue to Rs 1,299 crore for the same period due to the pricing pressure in some of the markets. While the revenue from the fertilisers segment remained more or less stagnant during the quarter, the agriinput segment registered a huge increase in its revenue to Rs 238 crore from Rs 27 crore in the June 2009 quarter. This was mainly due to Rallis India becoming a part of the company.

The company’s bottomline rose more than five-fold to Rs 216 crore against the year-ago period(This is by any mean a big big spurt) This can be attributed to two reasons. In November 2009, Tata Chemicals increased its stake in Rallis India to over 50%, the numbers of which were included in the June 2009 quarter.

Also, in the June 2009 quarter, company had incurred one-time expense of Rs 87 crore against the restructuring costs of its Netherlands unit of Brunner Mond. Despite higher traded good costs, lower input prices led to a spurt of 610 bps in its operating profit to 20.2%. Also, a proportionate decrease in the other expenses as a percentage of the net sales contributed to the same.

VALUATION: At the current market price of Rs 418.7, the scrip is trading at 22.1 times its earnings for the yearended June 2010. Given the encouraging demand environment in the domestic and international soda ash market and newer capacities coming in place, the stock looks attractive in the coming quarters.

CONCERN: The slowdown in the demand and weak pricing mechanism witnessed in the geographies of Europe continue to be a concern for the company stressing the performance of the Brunner Mond plant

*****


Tata Chemicals sees growth spurts

Tata Chemical’s stock crashed 6.5% after posting disappointing results for the quarter and year ended March 2010 on Monday. The scrip has marginally outperformed the market, gaining around 31% in the past one year as against a 15% growth in benchmark Sensex.

Tata Chemicals profit for the fourth quarter fell by more than a quarter to Rs 128 crore on a consolidated basis, despite a 24% improvement in net sales. Although net sales also fell against last year, the main positive was the 360-basis point improvement in its operating margins to 19.3%.

TCL’s inorganic chemical segment saw a fall of 8% and 4% in its revenue and PBIT, respectively. This was mainly due to the demand and pricing decline during the initial quarters of FY09-10. Similarly, the fertiliser segment also saw a huge fall of 36% and 25% in its revenue and PBIT, respectively, as the prices came down.

During FY10, the company saw better local and overseas demand for soda ash against previous year. Also, the debottlencking of its plant helped increase urea production by 20% y-o-y basis. Its new water purifier ‘Tata Swach’ launched in October 2009 sold nearly 50,000 units in Maharashtra and Karnataka, even as the company aims to sell a million units in FY11 as it pans out nationwide.

It paid off Rs 440 crore of debt during the June ’09 quarter followed by selling part of its stake in Titan to raise Rs 88 crore during the September ’09 quarter. It has reduced its debt-equity ratio to 0.81 for FY10 as against 0.95 for FY09. The company is still spending nearly Rs 400 crore on interest costs annually

The company has lined up a capex of around Rs 300 crore for FY11, when it will be completing its first customised fertiliser facility and embark upon doubling its urea capacity at Babrala. To shore up its capital base before going for this next round of capex the company is planning to raise over Rs 400 crore through a preferential allotment to its promoters.

Doubling of urea capacity to 2.4 million tonne per annum will take up three years with an estimated capex of Rs 3,500 crore. It has already carried out pre-feasibility and basic engineering studies and is awaiting clarity on gas supply to move ahead.

During the year, the company acquired shares in Rallis India — another Tata Group company focusing on agrochemicals — to take its shareholding beyond 50%.

Thanks to higher margins and better volumes, Tata Chemicals’s performance during FY10 was much better than in FY09. There is still some more restructuring lying ahead for this soda ash major.

***


Tata Chemicals mulls second plant for water purifier

Tata Chemicals Limited is mulling to set up a second plant for manufacturing nano water purifiers, which were being churned out from its Haldia plant at present.

"We are planning to set up a new plant. The location is yet to be finalised," Managing Director of Tata Chemicals R Mukundan said.

Launching the Tata Swach water purifier in the city today, Mukundan told reporters that the new plant would come up near a rice-growing belt since it used rice husk ash as an ingredient.(Raw material will be available at cheap cost)

"Ideally, we require one plant in each zone to meet the demand," he said.

At present, the Haldia plant has a capacity of one million units per annum.

The new plant would be of two modules, each with 50 lakh capacity. The total investment would be Rs 50 crore, he said.

Mukundan said that the company was also looking at the developing nations for exports of the product.

He said that the target market for the product is semi-urban and rural markets of the country.

The product was first launched in the north and west. "National roll out is taking place now."

According to me… Still this company is buy and hold ….. for long term…. We can see a good appreciation in years to come…. Who knows about Stock split, bonuses and hefty dividend….... I strongly believe that any target can come in this scrip..... One has to have the patience to churn out good profits....